Despite reporting record quarterly profits and steady growth across its Georgian and Uzbek operations, TBC Bank Group PLC saw its shares crash 11.87% on November 6, 2025 — a stark reminder that markets don’t always reward good news if they fear what’s next. The London-listed financial giant, a FTSE 250 constituent, posted a 6% year-on-year rise in net profit for both the third quarter and first nine months of 2025, with Q3 earnings hitting GEL 368 million (about $134 million) and nine-month profits reaching GEL 1,033 million ($376 million). Yet investors weren’t cheering. They were worried. And the reason? A surprise downward revision to its full-year profit target.
Strong Numbers, Softer Guidance
CEO Vakhtang Butskhrikidze didn’t mince words during the post-results conference call. "We’re seeing record operating performance," he said, pointing to a 17% surge in operating income to GEL 880 million in Q3 and a rock-solid 24.4% return on equity. The cost-to-income ratio held steady at 37.7%, and the net interest margin remained at 7.1% — signs of disciplined, efficient banking.
But then came the twist. "We will be below the net profit guidance we set in 2023," Butskhrikidze admitted. The bank now expects full-year net profit to land "slightly below" its GEL 1.5 billion target. Why? Because regulators in Georgia pushed for a faster shift away from high-risk microloans toward small and medium enterprise (SME) lending — a strategic pivot the bank executed sooner than planned. The move is socially responsible, but it’s also less immediately profitable. Microloans, while risky, carried higher margins. SME loans? More stable, more regulated, and less lucrative in the short term.
Georgia Holds Strong, Uzbekistan Explodes
While the group’s overall outlook dimmed slightly, its core markets delivered. In Georgia, TBC Georgia maintained its dominance with 37.8% of all customer loans and 38.1% of deposits as of June 30, 2025. Its gross loan book hit GEL 26 billion — up 11% year-on-year — while digital lending surged. A staggering 81% of consumer loans were now issued fully online, up from 68% a year earlier. That’s not just convenience — it’s a behavioral revolution.
Meanwhile, TBC Uzbekistan is becoming the group’s brightest growth engine. With 21 million registered users across its digital ecosystem — including the mobile-only bank, Payme payments app, and Payme Nasiya instalment platform — Uzbekistan’s operating income jumped 86% YoY to GEL 170 million, accounting for 20% of the group’s total. Net profit there rose 36% to GEL 32 million. The cost of risk remains high at 9.7%, but the growth trajectory is unmistakable. "We’re building the future of banking in Central Asia," Butskhrikidze noted.
Investor Panic and the Dividend Dilemma
Still, the market reacted with panic. TBCG shares fell to GEL 4,295 on November 6 — its steepest single-day drop in over two years. Why? Because investors had priced in the GEL 1.5 billion target. When that vanished, even with strong results, they sold. The company’s market cap sits at £2.38 billion, with daily volume averaging 127,925 shares — a relatively thin float that amplified the sell-off.
And yet, the bank didn’t cut its dividend. It declared a quarterly payout of GEL 1.75 per share, bringing the year-to-date dividend to GEL 5.00 per share. That’s a signal: management believes in long-term value, even if short-term numbers disappoint. "We’re investing in resilience," said investor relations head Anna Romelashvili. "This isn’t a slowdown — it’s a recalibration."
FirstGroup’s Contrast: Buybacks and Confidence
While TBC Bank stumbled on guidance, FirstGroup plc sent a very different signal. On July 25, 2025, the UK transport giant announced a £50 million share buyback — a clear vote of confidence in its own future. Its trading performance, it said, was "in line" with full-year expectations. No surprises. No revisions. Just steady cash flow and a willingness to return capital to shareholders.
The contrast is striking. One company is restructuring for long-term stability, sacrificing near-term earnings for regulatory alignment. The other is rewarding shareholders because its business model is predictable. Both are valid strategies. But in today’s market — where volatility is the norm — TBC’s move feels more courageous. And riskier.
What’s Next for TBC Bank?
The next milestone? Full-year results due in early 2026. Analysts will watch three things: whether SME lending volumes continue to grow, how quickly Uzbekistan’s cost of risk declines, and whether digital adoption in Georgia can offset any margin compression. The bank’s AA ESG rating from MSCI and inclusion in the FTSE4Good Index suggest its long-term strategy has institutional backing. But short-term pain? That’s on investors to stomach.
For now, TBC Bank is betting that Georgia’s economy — and Central Asia’s digital boom — will carry it forward. The market, for now, isn’t convinced. But history often rewards those who pivot before they’re forced to.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did TBC Bank’s stock drop despite strong earnings?
Despite reporting 6% YoY profit growth, TBC Bank’s shares fell 11.87% because management revised its full-year net profit target downward from GEL 1.5 billion to slightly below that level. Investors had priced in the original target, and the guidance cut — driven by a regulatory-mandated pivot from microloans to lower-margin SME lending — triggered a sell-off despite otherwise solid results.
How is TBC Uzbekistan performing compared to the Georgian division?
TBC Uzbekistan is growing far faster than its Georgian counterpart, with operating income surging 86% YoY to GEL 170 million in Q2 2025, contributing 20% of the group’s total. While Georgia remains the profit engine with 37.8% market share in loans, Uzbekistan’s digital ecosystem — including Payme and Payme Nasiya — is scaling rapidly, despite a higher cost of risk at 9.7% versus Georgia’s 0.8%.
What does the GEL 1.5 billion profit target mean for TBC Bank’s strategy?
The GEL 1.5 billion target was set in 2023 under assumptions of continued microloan growth. But regulatory pressure pushed TBC to shift faster toward SME lending, which is safer but less profitable in the short term. The revised outlook confirms the bank is prioritizing regulatory compliance and long-term stability over hitting an arbitrary profit number — a strategic pivot that may hurt near-term earnings but strengthens its license to operate.
How does TBC Bank’s digital growth compare to regional competitors?
TBC Georgia’s 81% digital loan issuance rate is among the highest in Eastern Europe, outpacing regional peers like Bank of Georgia and Credo Bank. In Uzbekistan, its 21 million registered users across Payme and its mobile bank make it the clear digital leader in Central Asia. Competitors are catching up, but TBC’s integrated ecosystem — combining banking, payments, and instalment credit — gives it a structural advantage.
Why did FirstGroup announce a £50 million buyback while TBC didn’t?
FirstGroup’s buyback reflects confidence in predictable cash flows from its UK transport operations, with no major strategic shifts underway. TBC, by contrast, is reinvesting profits into market expansion and regulatory compliance. While TBC maintained its dividend, it prioritized growth capital over shareholder returns — a deliberate choice to build long-term value rather than distribute short-term gains.
What’s the significance of TBC Bank being on the FTSE4Good Index?
TBC Bank’s inclusion in the FTSE4Good Index signals strong ESG performance, particularly in financial inclusion and responsible lending — key reasons it’s able to pivot away from microloans without losing investor trust. The AA rating from MSCI ESG underscores its leadership in sustainable banking practices in emerging markets, making it attractive to ESG-focused institutional investors despite near-term stock volatility.